Saturday, April 15, 2006

The nuclear row over Iran

The war of words between western countries and Iran, which is suspected of developing a nuclear weapons programme, continues to intensify. Iran says it has enriched a small amount of uranium and boasts of plans to enrich much more. The International Atomic Energy Agency, Russia and China are trying to mediate; America will call for coercive measures at the end of the month
The talk of military strikes, whether meant seriously or not, may be intended to put pressure on Iran to give way in future negotiations. But, as Iran’s leaders know, America’s leaders would be wise to think twice—at least—before unleashing any attack. The costs could be great diplomatically, as few American allies would support a strike. Nor would it do much good to the world economy: any disruption to oil supplies would push up already high prices.

Others, meanwhile, are still hoping diplomatic pressure might work. On Monday, European foreign ministers considered applying visa bans and financial sanctions if Iran presses on with sensitive nuclear activity. Of greater importance is persuading Russia and China to agree to tough diplomatic measures. Russia had proposed to enrich uranium for use in Iran, thereby keeping Iran from mastering the full fuel cycle. But Iran's enrichment announcement makes this seem a dead letter. Mr ElBaradei, Russia and China may look for a middle ground. But given Iran's comments and America's hawkish hints, they may find nothing.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home